Two new buildings, two blocks apart, are scheduled to hand over keys within roughly the same ninety days this fall. Combined, they still have 32 unsold luxury condos on the market. A third project, spanning nearly two full blocks of its own, will not deliver a single unit until 2028.
If you own in Naples Square or you're comparing it against something new, that timing matters more than any price-per-square-foot chart you've already seen. The obvious story downtown is "prices are rising, buy now." The real story is that new supply is not arriving on a steady drip. It's arriving in clusters, and the cluster landing this quarter is a different animal than the one landing two years from now.
The math nobody's doing
Within about a mile of Fifth Avenue South, Davis Boulevard, and Third Street South, six luxury condo buildings are under construction or recently completed, rising anywhere from three to fifteen stories. Together they add roughly 214 new residences to a downtown footprint that hasn't seen this much simultaneous new-construction activity in one stretch.
Three of those projects carry the specifics that matter most to anyone weighing a Naples Square decision right now:
Building | Units | Price Range | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
Avra at Metropolitan Naples | 56 | $2M – $7M+ | Half sold, closings anticipated mid-October |
Encore Naples Square | 15 | $3.6M – $5.9M | Only 4 remaining, completion Q4 2026 |
The Avenue | 50 | $3M – $8M | Broke ground Jan. 22, 2026, roughly two years to completion |
Look at those three rows side by side and a pattern shows up that a single "median price" headline never surfaces. Two of these buildings are about to hand keys to buyers in the same quarter. The third isn't even close to that stage yet.
What actually closes this quarter
Avra sits at the corner of U.S. 41 and Davis Boulevard, 56 units across 15 floors with rooftop amenities and retail on the ground level. Half of those residences have sold, according to sales director Ed Gonzalez, with closings anticipated in mid-October. That leaves 28 unsold units heading toward a closing table in the next several weeks.
A few blocks away on Third Street South, Encore Naples Square is finishing out its own 15-unit building, three stories, with 3,582- to 4,657-square-foot residences priced from $3.6 million to $5.9 million. Only four of those units remain available, and the building is set for completion in the fourth quarter of 2026. Its amenities include a 100-foot lap pool, spa, fitness center, and social room, and it sits walkably close to the Design District and the new Gulfshore Playhouse.
Add the unsold inventory from both buildings and you get 32 brand-new, unoccupied luxury condos scheduled to close within roughly the same ninety-day window this fall. That's not a gradual absorption of new supply. That's a concentration.
For a Naples Square owner thinking about listing this fall or winter, those 32 units are the actual competition, not some abstract downtown median. A buyer cross-shopping the neighborhood right now can walk into a finished, amenitized, never-lived-in unit at Encore or Avra in the same week they're touring a resale listing. That changes what staging, pricing, and even the reserve-study conversation need to accomplish on the resale side.
The building that resets everything again, later
The Avenue is a different clock entirely. It broke ground on January 22, 2026, on the former site of St. George and the Dragon, the restaurant that had operated there for more than 40 years before making way for the 4.3-acre project near Four Corners. Developer Andy Penev of APREA has been direct about the ambition behind it.
"We're committed to building something Naples will be proud of for decades to come."
The project spans nearly two blocks between the Naples Depot and Tin City, with 50 residences priced from $3 million to $8 million sitting above roughly 75,000 square feet of retail, plus a pedestrian promenade called Oak Row connecting Fifth and Sixth Avenue South. Construction is expected to run about two years from groundbreaking, which puts completion somewhere around 2028.
That gap matters. The current cluster of 32 units closing this fall is a temporary event, not a new steady state. Once Avra and Encore Naples Square absorb their remaining buyers, downtown goes quiet on new-construction deliveries for close to two years, until The Avenue's much larger wave lands. Anyone timing a Naples Square decision against "how much new supply is out there" needs to know which wave they're actually measuring against, because the answer is different in October 2026 than it will be in 2028.
If you own in Naples Square right now
The next four months are a narrower window than they might look from the outside. Two buildings are about to convert from "sold" to "occupied," which means the buyers who chose new construction over resale have already made that decision. The remaining pool of downtown condo shoppers this fall is disproportionately weighted toward people who either couldn't get into Avra or Encore, or who specifically want an established building, a known HOA history, and finished landscaping instead of a construction punch list.
That's a real advantage for a well-positioned Naples Square listing, but it has a shelf life. Once those 32 units close and the buyers who wanted brand-new have been served, the next two years become a quieter stretch for new-construction competition, which typically works in favor of resale sellers, right up until The Avenue's 50 units start marketing again as they approach 2028 completion.
If you're comparing new construction to resale
Buyers weighing Encore Naples Square against an existing Naples Square unit are really choosing between a shrinking, near-term option and a much longer wait. Four units remain at Encore. Once they're gone, the next opportunity to buy brand-new in that specific Third Street South corner of the Naples Square footprint doesn't reappear until The Avenue's very different Fifth Avenue South gateway location delivers, and that's a distinct pocket of downtown with its own retail mix, price band, and walkability profile.
If brand-new construction on Third Street South, close to the Design District and Gulfshore Playhouse, is the priority, the window is measured in units remaining, not months. If the priority is a specific price point, floor plan, or exposure that only exists in an established Naples Square building, this fall's cluster of closings may actually work in your favor by clearing out competing new-construction buyers before you make an offer.
A few questions worth asking before you decide
Does 214 new downtown units mean Naples Square resale prices will fall? Not necessarily, and not evenly. The 214 figure covers six buildings spread across three completion timelines rather than one flood of inventory. The fall cluster of 32 units is a short-term event. The bigger question for any specific listing is which of these six buildings it's actually competing against on price, size, and location, not the aggregate count.
Should I wait for The Avenue instead of buying now? That depends on what you're optimizing for. The Avenue won't be ready until roughly 2028, priced from $3 million to $8 million on the Fifth Avenue South gateway. If your timeline or budget doesn't align with that wait, or if you specifically want the Third Street South location that Encore or existing Naples Square buildings offer, waiting two years for a different pocket of downtown may not serve your actual goals.
If Avra isn't in Naples Square, why does it matter? Because buyers don't shop by development name first. Someone comparing downtown Naples luxury condos this fall is cross-shopping Avra, Encore, and Naples Square resale listings in the same afternoon. What closes and when, regardless of which specific building it's in, shapes the pool of active buyers a Naples Square seller is drawing from right now.
Naples Square is not a single data point on a chart. It's a specific set of buildings competing against a specific, shifting set of alternatives, and right now those alternatives are converging on a calendar most sellers and buyers haven't looked at closely. If you're trying to figure out where your unit, or the unit you're considering, actually sits against what's closing this quarter and what's still two years out, that's the kind of building-by-building read worth getting right before you price a listing or write an offer.
If you'd like to talk through how this timing applies to your specific building, floor plan, or timeline, Eileen Komanecky is glad to walk through it with you. Let's Connect.
